First of all let me say that what I am covering today is not news in the industry. Brokers and investors alike have known about the theoretical value that Harlem has to offer for months, even years already. It has been talked about to the extent that most active buyers have arrived at the belief that the arbitrage value between downtown and uptown Manhattan has already reached the point where it is ‘tapped out’. It is reasonable to think that once press on a hot area becomes common that the competition for the inventory in that area is already won, but I honestly believe that that is not the case here. Why? Because I believe that there is a strong stigma associated with the name ‘Harlem’, and I believe that the full extent of the luxury market has yet to be realized as a result.

Yes I am making an abstract argument, but it is an argument based on my understanding of the way that neighborhoods in Manhattan go from dangerous to prime. I cannot tell you how many times clients with homes now valued or recently sold in the seven to eight figure range have told me that their friends thought they were crazy for buying a park block townhouse on the Upper West Side. Of course at that time they admittedly had to repair the bullet holes on the facades of the buildings they were buying before moving in, but history proves the validity of their home/investment strategy.

That said, most or all areas in Harlem have progressed far past the point where bullets in your building’s façade are a reasonable worry. To draw the Upper West Side safety analogy again, we’re in the 1980’s as opposed to the 1960’s; the sense and the perception of risk is still present, but the brunt of the risk is gone. I myself lived in Harlem for a year and a half right out of college and did not once have my safety compromised.

All of the above boils down into one basic fact: it is still cheaper to buy property in Harlem, but it will not be for long!